SWODY2
SPC AC 200549
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT TUE APR 20 2010
VALID 211200Z - 221200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LOW INITIALLY CENTERED OVER CA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
SLOW ESEWD PROGRESS WITH TIME...WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION
EXPECTED TO REACH SRN NV LATE. MEANWHILE...BROAD/COMPLEX TROUGHING
IS PROGGED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN HALF OF NOAM.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER LOW WILL
CONTINUE PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. FARTHER E...A
WEAK/ARCING COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
AND SWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH 22/12Z.
...CO FRONT RANGE SEWD INTO WRN OK/WRN N TX...
SHORT-WAVE RIDGING ALOFT IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...AND WILL SPREAD EWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. RESULTING SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A CAPPED
BOUNDARY LAYER...WHILE MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /SURFACE
DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S/ WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MOST
OF THIS REGION.
LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AND LOCALLY-GREATER DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO
FOCUS NEAR A WEAK WARM FRONT FORECAST TO EXTEND ACROSS THE TX
PANHANDLE AND INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WITH 500 TO 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BY
AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL ASCENT -- BOTH NEAR THE FRONT AND IN SELY
LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME OVER SERN CO JUST N OF THE BOUNDARY -- MAY
BE SUFFICIENT TO LOCALLY ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION LEADING TO
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT.
WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...LOW-LEVEL SELYS
BENEATH THE MORE WLY FLOW FIELD ALOFT SUGGEST VERTICAL SHEAR
PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS. THUS
-- ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS WARRANTS
THE INCLUSION OF 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 04/20/2010
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