SWODY2
SPC AC 041729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN APR 04 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MO VALLEY REGION
EWD INTO THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES...
...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S.
THIS PERIOD...AS A LARGE TROUGH SHIFTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE
DOWNSTREAM RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SERN U.S. STRENGTHENS. IN
BETWEEN THE WRN TROUGH AND THE SERN RIDGE...A BELT OF FAST WSWLYS AT
MID-LEVELS WILL STRETCH FROM THE DESERT SW NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AT THE SURFACE...CYCLOGENESIS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD AS THE WRN
TROUGH ADVANCES. AS THIS OCCURS...A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO
SHARPEN WHILE LIFTING SLOWLY NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MO
AND MID MS VALLEYS. THIS FRONT WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.
...MID MO VALLEY AND VICINITY EWD TO THE SRN UPPER GREAT LAKES...
STRONG CAPPING IS EVIDENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS REGION
AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AREA THIS PERIOD AS STRONG/PERSISTENT
WSWLYS ALOFT ADVECT AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ATOP THE CENTRAL U.S.
WARM SECTOR. DESPITE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE
CAPPING AND LACK OF APPRECIABLE HEIGHT FALLS/UVV INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL HINDER CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL ALMOST COMPLETELY S OF
THE SHARPENING WARM FRONT.
NEAR THE FRONT HOWEVER...STRONG/PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL JET IMPINGING
UPON/ASCENDING ATOP THE SHARPENING FRONT SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AREA...WITH
STORMS THEN INCREASING/EXPANDING EWD TOWARD/INTO THE SRN UPPER GREAT
LAKES OVERNIGHT.
ATTM...IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL
ASSOCIATED WITH ELEVATED STORMS N OF THE SURFACE FRONT.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED STORMS ROOTED WITHIN A SURFACE-BASED OR NEAR
SURFACE-BASED LAYER INVOF THE FRONT WOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME WIND THREAT...AS WELL AS TORNADO POTENTIAL GIVEN THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER AND MIXED-LAYER CAPE LIKELY NEAR 2000 J/KG ALONG WITH
VERY FAVORABLE VEERING/INCREASING OF THE FLOW FIELD WITH HEIGHT.
SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS
STORMS EXPAND ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
..GOSS.. 04/04/2010
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