SWODY2
SPC AC 171729
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SAT APR 17 2010
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG NRN STREAM MIDLEVEL LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD AWAY FROM NEW
ENGLAND ON SUNDAY. FARTHER S...A BROAD MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. MEANWHILE...A WEAKENING
MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS E/NEWD THROUGH A MEAN UPPER RIDGE
EXTENDING NWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF NORTH AMERICA.
...MID-UPPER TX COAST TO LA...
A SLOW-MOVING MIDLEVEL LOW AND WEAK SURFACE CYCLONE LOCATED OVER N
TX EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL SHIFT ESEWD INTO E TX. A TRAILING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO E TX...WITH THE SRN EXTENT TRACKING
TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND SRN TX. A PW PLUME AOA 1.25 INCHES
ACROSS ERN TX AND SPREADING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY COMBINED WITH
WEAK INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TSTMS.
...SRN FL...
SEVERAL WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK EWD ACROSS THE
FL PENINSULA DURING THE DAY 2 PERIOD. ASCENT WITH THESE FEATURES
SHOULD AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS.
ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 40 KT BY
LATE AFTERNOON AS SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN ATOP GENERALLY WEAK
LOW LEVEL ELY WINDS...WEAK INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT.
...ROCKIES...
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE
ROCKIES...GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS /MID-
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES/. HOWEVER...WEAK
INSTABILITY SHOULD PROVE INSUFFICIENT IN SUPPORTING A SEVERE
POTENTIAL.
..PETERS.. 04/17/2010
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