SWODY3
SPC AC 040723
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 AM CDT SUN APR 04 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-UPR MS VLY AND
ERN PLAINS...
...SYNOPSIS...
A COMPLEX...POSITIVE-TILT AND FULL-LATITUDE UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE IN THE WRN STATES ON MONDAY WILL STEADILY PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY ON TUESDAY. THE TROUGH WILL CONTAIN
TWO PRIMARY PIECES...ONE WHICH WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO
THE UPR GRTLKS TUESDAY AFTN...WITH A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY
DROPPING MORE SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
IN THE LWR LVLS...A SFC LOW OVER SERN NEB EARLY TUESDAY WILL DEVELOP
ENE TOWARD NRN IL DURING THE NIGHT AS SECONDARY...ALBEIT
WEAK...CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS OVER CNTRL OK. A CDFNT WILL STRENGTHEN
AND ADVANCE SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE ERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...MID/UPR MS VLY TO THE ERN PLAINS...
LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS...LIKELY PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE
HAIL...WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE UPR MS VLY AND CNTRL GRTLKS REGION
EARLY TUESDAY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ENE THROUGH THE GRTLKS
REGION AND WEAKEN AS THE LLJ BACKS AND REFOCUSES ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS IN RESPONSE TO THE EJECTION OF THE PRIMARY TROUGH. THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WILL BE QUITE ROBUST ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. THUS...THE WARM SECTOR...CHARACTERIZED BY
60-65 DEG F SFC DEW POINTS...WILL REMAIN CAPPED UNTIL LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT ARRIVES DURING THE MID-LATE AFTN.
AS THE NRN-MOST UPR IMPULSE SWINGS TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS...FIRST
TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR THE CDFNT ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPR MS VLY
WITH A SUBSEQUENT BACKBUILDING SWWD INTO THE ERN PLAINS AS CINH IS
WEAKENED...AS FAR S AS CNTRL/ERN OK.
ORIENTATION OF THE MEAN UPR TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY
LINE-PARALLEL SHEAR ALONG MOST OF THE FRONT EXCEPT THE SRN-END WHERE
VECTORS WILL BE COMPARATIVELY PERPENDICULAR. THUS...STORMS WILL
TEND TO EVOLVE INTO LINES MOSTLY...ALTHOUGH DISCRETE STORMS WILL BE
MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. WHILE DMGG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
WILL BE A THREAT THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA...TORNADO
PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAXIMIZED OVER THE UPR MS VLY INVOF THE SFC
LOW...AND ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...WHERE THE RICHEST MOISTURE AND
MORE DISCRETE STORM MODES WILL EXIST.
..RACY.. 04/04/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment