SWOD48
SPC AC 270825
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0325 AM CDT TUE APR 27 2010
VALID 301200Z - 051200Z
...DISCUSSION...
DRASTIC DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE AGAIN APPARENT
THIS FORECAST...AS EARLY AS DAY 4 /FRI. APR. 30/. SUBSTANTIAL
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE COMPLEX
UPPER SYSTEM AFFECTING THE WRN AND CENTRAL U.S. RESULTS IN A GFS
FORECAST OF THE DAY 4 AFTERNOON SURFACE FRONTAL POSITION FROM STL
SWWD INTO SERN TX. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF DEPICTS THE FRONT AT THE
SAME TIME ACROSS CENTRAL KS/CENTRAL OK/CENTRAL TX. WHILE SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY EXIST INVOF THE SURFACE FRONT REGARDLESS OF
ITS ACTUAL LOCATION -- AS AMPLY MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WOULD
LIKELY EXIST ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SHEAR...THE LOCATION OF THIS
THREAT WOULD OBVIOUSLY DIFFER BY SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES BASED ON A
PERFECT PROG OF THE TWO RUNS.
ATTM...IT WOULD APPEAR THAT THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS MORE LIKELY --
WITH MAIN SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF IA ACROSS MO/ERN
KS AND INTO OK AND PERHAPS N TX. HOWEVER...ATTM CONFIDENCE IS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH TO HIGHLIGHT A SPECIFIC THREAT AREA.
SUBSTANTIAL MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE THROUGH THE MEDIUM
RANGE...AND THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LIKEWISE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT
ANY THREAT AREAS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
..GOSS.. 04/27/2010
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