SWOMCD
SPC MCD 030101
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-030230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0240
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CDT FRI APR 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX TO AR/NORTHWEST LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 030101Z - 030230Z
AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE TSTM THREAT MAY DEVELOP THROUGH MID/LATE
EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK/NORTHEAST TX INTO AR/NORTHWEST
LA. MONITORING FOR A POSSIBLE WATCH.
ON THE WEST EDGE OF THICK CLOUD COVER/WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTION...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE PRE-WEAK COLD FRONT/DRYLINE MOIST SECTOR ONLY
GRADUALLY RECOVERED/DESTABILIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A
CORRIDOR NEAR/EAST OF I-35 FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX INTO EASTERN OK.
WITH RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT NOTED JUST EAST OF THE ATOKA OK AREA AS
OF 01Z...THIS VICINITY /ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OK INTO WESTERN AR/
NONETHELESS SEEMS THE MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR A POSSIBLE UPSWING IN
DEEP CONVECTION THIS EVENING...LARGELY ATTRIBUTABLE TO HEIGHT FALLS
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES ALOFT /REFERENCE 00Z NORMAN OBSERVED
RAOB/ IN ASSOCIATION WITH A SOUTHERN PLAINS SPEED MAX/INCREASINGLY
NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH. SOME INITIAL SURFACE
BASED/SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE...BUT WITH TIME...A
RELATIVELY QUICK LINEAR-TYPE EVOLUTION IS PROBABLE GIVEN THE
MAGNITUDE OF THE LARGE SCALE FORCING/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS SUCH...SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE
PRIMARY/INITIAL CONCERN...BUT AT LEAST SOME DAMAGING WIND THREAT
COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING VIA SMALL BOWS...EVEN WITH A
MODESTLY MOIST/RELATIVELY INHIBITED BOUNDARY LAYER.
..GUYER.. 04/03/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32119539 32289600 32799665 33269653 33929610 35789542
36329475 36189384 35039314 33009382 32339468 32119539
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