SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041602
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-041730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0244
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 AM CDT SUN APR 04 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE MO INTO NRN/CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 041602Z - 041730Z
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE
NEEDED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
OR EVENING.
INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL MISSOURI APPEARED
TO BE ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A NARROW TONGUE OF BETTER MOISTURE
RETURN OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF A WEAK STALLING FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
ACTIVITY LIKELY IS BASED WITHIN A ZONE OF STRONGER LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
EAST/NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS
BETWEEN NOW AND 18-20Z.
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON ONGOING
DESTABILIZATION...BUT IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN LIMITED TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AT BEST...AT LEAST THROUGH
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE STEEP
HOWEVER...AND DEEP LAYER AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ARE STRONG...SO
DESTABILIZATION TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. EVEN WITH
ONLY MODEST MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT SURFACE HEATING COULD EVENTUALLY BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORMS...IN THE PRESENCE OF
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC PROFILES FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING
SURFACE GUSTS.
..KERR.. 04/04/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...
LAT...LON 41249079 41978968 41408821 40438831 39968864 39059039
38989112 38919204 39699321 41249079
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