SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041922
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-042115-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0245
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0222 PM CDT SUN APR 04 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF E CNTRL KS/W CNTRL THRU NE MO AND ADJACENT
SRN IA/W CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 041922Z - 042115Z
TRENDS ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY BEFORE 21Z.
IN THE FACE OF RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...DOWNSTREAM OF THE LARGE
UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING INTO THE PACIFIC COAST...A SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN 50+ KT WEST SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW IS
BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS FEATURE...MODELS INDICATE THAT A DEVELOPING SURFACE
FRONTAL WAVE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO WEST
CENTRAL MISSOURI BETWEEN 04/21-05/00Z. WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF
THIS WAVE...IT APPEARS THAT RAPID BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING AND
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...AS SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACHING 60F
ADVECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS...BENEATH
SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW STRENGTHENING FROM 40-50 KTS.
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT INITIATION OF STORMS IS POSSIBLE
AS EARLY AS 20-22Z...WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES NEAR/ SOUTH THROUGH
EAST OF KANSAS CITY INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE MID/UPPER FLOW...AND THE PRESENCE OF LARGE CLOCKWISE-CURVED
LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AS CAPE INCREASES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. LARGE
HAIL/LOCALIZED DOWNBURSTS WILL PROBABLY BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITHIN
INITIAL STORMS...BUT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS...THE RISK FOR
TORNADOES SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE PRIOR TO NIGHTFALL.
..KERR.. 04/04/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...DMX...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 40339395 40799301 40899110 39889033 39169051 38329287
37739521 38869568 39449505 39969429 40339395
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment