SWOMCD
SPC MCD 072211
LAZ000-TXZ000-072315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0285
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0511 PM CDT WED APR 07 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 072211Z - 072315Z
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED S OF WW 62 ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT.
WITH CAPPING LIKELY TO LIMIT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE HOWEVER...WW
APPEARS UNLIKELY ATTM.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOW FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS SERN
PORTIONS OF TX...INTO AIRMASS FEATURING LOW TO MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND
AROUND 1000 J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN
INCREASINGLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SWD EXTENT ALONG THE
FRONT...BUT ISOLATED STORMS -- CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND
HAIL -- HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP AS FAR S AS WALKER CO.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT SWD ALONG THE FRONT IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO
THE AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING...BUT GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR ANY STORM WHICH CAN BREACH THE CAP WOULD POSE A SEVERE THREAT.
ATTM...CONTINUE TO BELIEVE THAT ANY ADDITIONAL
FRONTAL/SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY ISOLATED
AS TO PRECLUDE ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS.. 04/07/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 31519322 30779362 29449538 29199746 30439680 31489548
31519322
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