MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0295

ACUS11 KWNS 082238
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082237
VAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-082330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0295
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT THU APR 08 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV/PARTS OF MD/CENTRAL VA/CENTRAL AND WRN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 082237Z - 082330Z

VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY BUT FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONGER/ROTATING STORMS. THOUGH
THREAT REMAINS ISOLATED...WW MAY BE REQUIRED IF CONVECTION INCREASES
IN COVERAGE.

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ALIGNED ALONG/JUST E OF
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE APPALACHIANS...SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY REMAINS
QUITE LIMITED ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWING
SURFACE-BASED CAPE LARGELY BELOW 500 J/KG -- HENCE THE OVERALL LACK
OF MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHTNING.

WHILE INSTABILITY REMAINS QUESTIONABLE...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS -- WITH FLOW
VEERING/INCREASING WITH HEIGHT TO ROUGHLY 60 KT FROM THE SW AT MID
LEVELS. GIVEN THIS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER ROTATING CELLS MAY
CONTINUE TO POSE A TORNADO THREAT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
LIKEWISE...STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND SIZEABLE SURFACE DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WITH ORGANIZED STORMS.
ATTM...QUESTIONS PERSIST WITH RESPECT TO THE LONGEVITY OF THE SEVERE
THREAT...GIVEN THE UPCOMING ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING...AND THUS
THE NEED FOR A WW REMAINS UNCERTAIN. ANY FURTHER INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT COULD NECESSITATE WW
ISSUANCE.

..GOSS.. 04/08/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON 39377711 38707685 36497811 34957980 35098204 37027970
39587770 39377711

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