SWOMCD
SPC MCD 132312
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-140045-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0313
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0612 PM CDT TUE APR 13 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO/WRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 132312Z - 140045Z
A WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.
RECENT STORM DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN GENERALLY FOCUSED
WITHIN STRONG BOUNADRY LAYER CONVERGENCE ALONG A LOW-LEVEL
CONFLUENCE AXIS...NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SIGNIFICANT
UPPER TROUGH LIFTING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. AS THE UPPER
TROUGH CONTINUES NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD THIS EVENING...ONLY A VERY SLOW
EASTWARD SHIFT TO THE LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS IS ANTICIPATED. AS
STORM INFLOW BECOMES COOLER/MORE STABLE...ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN...AND THIS SEEMS LIKELY TO OCCUR BY THE 01-02Z TIME FRAME.
BUT...UNTIL THEN...LARGE SUB-CLOUD TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
SPREADS...IN THE PRESENCE OF HIGH MOMENTUM NEAR A 50+ KT SOUTHERLY
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS...PROBABLY WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A COUPLE OF STRONG
DOWNBURSTS...AND POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG
OUTWARD/NORTHEASTWARD SPREADING SURFACE COLD POOLS.
..KERR.. 04/13/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
LAT...LON 38220331 39180289 39800257 40260191 39810099 37530214
37140325 38220331
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