SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211824
UTZ000-WYZ000-212000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0124 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN UT...FAR SW WY
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 211824Z - 212000Z
THE THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD. UNCERTAINTY CURRENTLY EXISTS ABOUT THE NEED
FOR A WW...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
W/V IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOSED UPPER LOW ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN AND A
BAND OF STRONG MOIST ASCENT OVERSPREADING MUCH OF UT. MEANWHILE...A
SFC COLD FRONT IS PUSHING EWD ACROSS WRN UT. AS THE ENVIRONMENT
DESTABILIZES WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LOW...SBCAPE VALUES OF 500-700
J/KG SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILE IS FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZATION OF SOME THUNDERSTORM CELLS INTO BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINES
WITH SMALL EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS...AND PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS.
INVERTED-V SHAPED BL THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE WILL ALSO SUPPORT
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SFC WITHIN CONVECTIVE BANDS.
MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL ACROSS
THE REGION...WITH STRONG WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
..ROGERS.. 04/21/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...RIW...GJT...SLC...
LAT...LON 39141191 40031247 41501306 41891243 41791120 41061032
40000951 38870928 38050958 37541086 37801135 39141191
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