MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0332

ACUS11 KWNS 220206
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220206
TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-220300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0332
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0906 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO/NERN NM/TX AND OK PANHANDLES/FAR SWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72...

VALID 220206Z - 220300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72
CONTINUES.

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AT 02Z DEPICTS A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS MOVING
EWD ACROSS SERN CO...WITH WIDELY ISOLATED CELLS LOCATED TO ITS S
OVER NERN NM. 00Z DDC AND AMA RAOBS SHOW A RATHER STABLE BOUNDARY
LAYER AIRMASS RESIDES E OF WW 72...WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORM THREAT AS CURRENT ACTIVITY APPROACHES ERN EDGE OF
WATCH. HOWEVER...SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 850 MB MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND WAA WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE NIGHT OVER SWRN KS AS
SLY LLJ INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THIS MAY AID
IN MAINTAINING EWD MOVEMENT OF CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER SERN CO INTO
SWRN KS...OR...COULD RESULT IN NEW DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE ONGOING
MCS.

RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS OVER SW KS AND THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INDICATE
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH MUCAPE VALUES
APPROACHING 1000-1500 J/KG TOWARD 04-06Z. IN ADDITION...EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL RESIDE AROUND 30-40 KT OVER THE
PANHANDLE...TO 50 KT IN SW KS. THIS ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT A THREAT
FOR LARGE HAIL...WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING
MITIGATED BY A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. THOUGH WW 72 WILL LIKELY BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 03Z...LOCATIONS DOWNSTREAM WILL BE MONITORED
FOR INCREASING SEVERE POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL WW LATER
IN THE NIGHT.

..GARNER.. 04/22/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON 38120477 38110147 35440101 35470415 38120477

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