SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220331
TXZ000-NMZ000-220430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0333
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1031 PM CDT WED APR 21 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN-ERN NM AND W TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 220331Z - 220430Z
A NEW WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR PARTS OF SERN-ERN NM INTO W
TX...AND WOULD INCLUDE SOME OF THE WRN EXTENT OF WW 73 WHICH IS
SCHEDULED TO EXPIRE AT 04Z.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED DRY LINE HAS CONTINUED TO RETREAT WWD
WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 50S NOW LOCATED INTO SERN NM.
THE COMBINATION OF UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS SERN NM WITHIN THE MOISTENING
AIR MASS AND BENEATH GRADUAL HEIGHT FALLS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
WRN CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ARE LIKELY AIDING IN THE RECENT TSTM
DEVELOPMENT OVER SERN NM. 18Z GFS/00Z RUC INDICATE THIS ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING INTO W TX OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT MODEST /MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG/...STEEP
LAPSE RATES /7-8 C/KM/ AND STRENGTHENING W TX LLJ AND SWLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 35-45 KT FOR AT LEAST A FEW
ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH THE INITIAL SERN NM STORMS.
HOWEVER...SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD INCREASE AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD
INTO W TX WHERE GREATER INSTABILITY WILL BE MAINTAINED PER INFLUX OF
HIGHER MOISTURE ALONG LLJ.
..PETERS.. 04/22/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...
LAT...LON 32420525 33930433 34830415 35430392 35640288 35630181
34840165 33590159 32600177 32110224 32020319 32060478
32420525
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