SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222156
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-222230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0338
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0456 PM CDT THU APR 22 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN KS TO SWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 222156Z - 222230Z
ONE OR TWO WATCHES ARE BEING CONSIDERED ACROSS SRN KS INTO SWRN MO
AND PERHAPS PARTS OF FAR NRN OK.
REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A COUPLE OF ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL MO W/SWWD INTO ERN KS...WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THIS ACTIVITY
IN ERN/SERN KS. THE COOLING/STABILIZING EFFECTS FROM THIS ACTIVITY
WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE WARM FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM SOUTH
CENTRAL MO WWD THROUGH FAR SRN KS TO A SURFACE LOW OVER EXTREME SERN
CO. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS PRIMARILY WEAK WITH EWD EXTENT INTO ERN
KS/WRN-SWRN MO...STRONG WLY EFFECTIVE SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LINE SEGMENTS
WITH A POTENTIAL THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. IN ADDITION...
ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...GIVEN FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PER SGF VWP AND EFFECTIVE SRH VALUES 100-200 M2/S2
ALONG THE WARM FRONT OVER ERN KS INTO WEST CENTRAL/SWRN MO.
FARTHER W...INSTABILITY IS GREATER GIVEN GREATER INFLUX OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
KS/. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD NEWD FROM THE
NM/TX BORDER REGION INTO SRN KS THIS EVENING SHOULD ALLOW ONGOING
STORMS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE TX PANHANDLE TO SWRN KS TO
SPREAD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40
KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ATTENDANT
THREATS FOR TORNADOES...HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.
.PETERS.. 04/22/2010
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 39120016 38859854 38419702 38189550 38149456 38149345
37709309 36919284 36589418 36769571 36849777 36799922
39120016
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