MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0385

ACUS11 KWNS 250258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250258
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-250330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0385
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0958 PM CDT SAT APR 24 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN-SERN AL/FL PANHANDLE/PARTS OF SWRN-CENTRAL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 250258Z - 250330Z

NEW TORNADO WATCH IS BEING CONSIDERED FOR SERN AL...FL PANHANDLE
INTO SWRN TO CENTRAL GA.

OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION HAS
CONTINUED TO DESTABILIZE WITH EWD EXTENT...AS STEEP LAPSE RATES /7-8
C/KM/ HAVE SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CORRIDOR.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWED A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE EXTENDING FROM THE
WRN FL PANHANDLE INTO SRN AL WHERE REGIONAL RADARS HAVE INDICATED
RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. FORCING FOR ASCENT WITHIN ENTRANCE REGION
OF TN VALLEY UPPER JET...AND POSSIBLY MORE SUBTLY BY EITHER A SUB
TROPICAL IMPULSE OR JET STREAK EMANATING FROM E TX/LA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT EWD FROM SRN AL/WRN
FL PANHANDLE. UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH STRENGTH OF CAP ACROSS
CENTRAL/NERN GULF COAST REGION AS INDICATED BY 00Z SOUNDINGS.
HOWEVER...RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE MAY
BE REFLECTIVE OF THE STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE WITH UPDRAFTS
BEING ABLE TO BREAK THROUGH THE CAP. SHORT TERM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THIS LOW LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE WILL SHIFT EWD OVERNIGHT REACHING
SWRN GA/ERN FL PANHANDLE BY 09Z.

ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL /0-1
KM SRH 400-600 M2/S2 PER SERN AL AND TLH VWPS/ AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL SUPPORT A TORNADO THREAT WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME ROOTED
AT THE SURFACE.

..PETERS.. 04/25/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON 30028834 32048662 33088530 33598434 33888355 32308267
31458287 30428380 29398521 30028604 30028834

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