SWOMCD
SPC MCD 300404
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-300430-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0415
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1104 PM CDT THU APR 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF CENTRAL TO NERN KS...SERN NEB...SWRN
IA...EXTREME NWRN MO
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 108...
VALID 300404Z - 300430Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 108 CONTINUES.
A NEW WATCH WILL BE ISSUED PRIOR TO 05Z TO REPLACE MUCH OF THE VALID
PORTION OF WW 108 AND INCLUDE A FEW ADDITIONAL COUNTIES S OF WW 108
IN ICT COUNTY WARNING AREA.
UPPER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION...PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...WILL MOVE ESEWD TOWARD THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH 30-60
METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS FORECAST ACROSS ERN KS OVERNIGHT. THIS FACTOR
COMBINED WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE INFLOW PER 75-85 KT SLY LLJ INTO THE
ONGOING LINE OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS FROM EDWARDS COUNTY KS TO MILLS
COUNTY IA WILL MAINTAIN THIS ACTIVITY TONIGHT. LATEST TRENDS IN
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSES INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY
IS LOCATED ALONG A SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
PROGRESS E/SEWD INTO FRIDAY MORNING SPREADING THE SEVERE THREAT
ESEWD.
DESPITE EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR REMAINING VERY STRONG FOR SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT...THE DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CONTINUED
DIABATIC COOLING SUGGESTS SURFACE BASED PARCELS SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE FOR INGEST INTO ONGOING AND OVERNIGHT
ACTIVITY. IN ADDITION TO SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...DEEP SWLY WIND
FIELDS SUGGEST EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS WILL ALSO BE LIKELY.
THUS...SEVERE HAIL AND SOME WIND THREAT REMAIN POSSIBLE...WHILE THE
TORNADO THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
..PETERS.. 04/30/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 37639912 38479872 39499793 40279739 41359590 41649527
40659492 39909485 39069591 38289716 37819792 37639912
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