SWODY1
SPC AC 101233
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0733 AM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
CENTRAL/NE OK AND SE KS...
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE HIGH RISK IN
KS...OK...SW MO...AND NW AR...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/NW TX TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT...
...A FEW STRONG/LONG-TRACK TORNADOES...ALONG WITH VERY LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS
CENTRAL/NE OK AND EXTREME S CENTRAL/SE KS...
...SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON TO MO OVERNIGHT...
RAPID CHANGES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS MOVES QUICKLY EWD
TO CENTRAL KS/NRN OK BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUES ENEWD TO THE
MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MOIST
AIR MASS /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F/ WILL SURGE NWD FROM
NW/N CENTRAL TX TO CENTRAL AND NRN OK BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. THIS
MOISTENING WILL OCCUR BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND IN RESPONSE TO EWD DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE ACROSS
SW/S CENTRAL KS. THE MOST FAVORABLE PHASING OF THE UNSTABLE WARM
SECTOR AND STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL OCCUR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL/NE OK...AND THE ADJACENT
BORDER COUNTIES IN KS. OVERNIGHT...THE BELT OF STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL ACCELERATE ENEWD OVER MO AT A FASTER RATE THAN THE LOW
LEVELS WILL BE ABLE TO MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE...RESULTING IN A DECREASE
IN THE SEVERE STORM/TORNADO RISK LATER TONIGHT.
DISCRETE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS EXPECTED BY 18-20Z IN SW KS NEAR
THE SURFACE LOW AND LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE MID-UPPER JET.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR FARTHER SE ALONG THE SRN KS/NRN OK
DRYLINE AROUND 21-22Z...WITH ISOLATED STORMS POSSIBLE SWD INTO
CENTRAL OK AND NW TX CLOSER TO 22-00Z. THE STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE MID-UPPER JET CORE SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY
TAKE UP TO AN HOUR OR SO TO MATURE. HOWEVER...EFFECTIVE SRH OF
400-600 M2/S2...BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 65-70 F AND MLCAPE OF
2000-3500 J/KG ALL FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/LONG-TRACK
TORNADOES IN THE MDT-HIGH RISK AREAS. THE TORNADO AND LARGE HAIL
THREAT SHOULD MAXIMIZE FROM ABOUT 22-02Z IN OK/SE KS...WITH A
GRADUAL EVOLUTION TO A MORE LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS/LARGE HAIL OVERNIGHT ACROSS MO.
POTENTIAL CONCERNS WILL BE THE LATE ARRIVAL AND NARROW WIDTH OF THE
WARM SECTOR COMPARED TO THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES AND FAST
STORM MOTIONS. A COMPARISON OF EXPECTED 45-50 KT STORM MOTIONS WITH
WARM SECTOR WIDTH/PROGRESSION SUGGESTS A 2-3 HOUR WINDOW FOR
SUPERCELLS TO MATURE AND REMAIN WITHIN THE CORRIDOR OF STRONGER
INSTABILITY ACROSS EXTREME SRN/SERN KS AND NRN/NERN OK THIS EVENING.
STILL...IT APPEARS THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
LONG TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT SUPERCELL/TORNADO RISK FOR A FEW HOURS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...INCLUDING THE WICHITA...TULSA...AND
OKLAHOMA CITY METROPOLITAN AREAS.
..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 05/10/2010
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