SWODY1
SPC AC 140518
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1218 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010
VALID 141200Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF
NM/W TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-SOUTH TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SERN STATES UPR RIDGE WILL FLATTEN AS THE MID-LVL WAVE OVER
THE UPR GRTLKS TURNS EWD TOWARD WRN NEW ENGLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
UPSTREAM ENERGY DIGGING INTO THE MEAN WRN STATES TROUGH POSITION
WILL EJECT ENE FROM THE SRN GRT BASIN TO THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS
LATE FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...LOWER AMPLITUDE WAVES WILL
MIGRATE NEWD FROM THE WRN GULF COASTAL AREA INTO THE LWR MS VLY
DURING THE PD.
IN THE LWR-LVLS...THE CDFNT FOLLOWING THE NRN-MOST TROUGH WILL
SETTLE SLOWLY THROUGH THE MID-ATLC REGION...CNTRL APLCNS AND THE TN
VLY/MID-SOUTH FRIDAY AFTN/NIGHT. TAIL-END OF THIS FRONT WILL
CONTINUE SWWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF NM/W TX.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS OF NM/W TX...
LLVL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO FAR W TX AND SERN NM
FRIDAY...PROBABLY FARTHER W THAN SHORT-TERM MODELS SUGGEST OWING TO
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/UPSTREAM FALLING PRESSURES. DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING...SELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND WEAK UPR SUPPORT ALONG SRN
FRINGES OF THE APCHG TROUGH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE HIGHER SW TX/SE NM TERRAIN DURING THE AFTN. MLCAPES ALONG
THE ERN SLOPES WILL LIKELY REACH 2000-2500 J/KG AND WITH WEAKENING
CINH AND ROUGHLY 35-40 KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR... SUPERCELLS WILL BE
LIKELY AS STORMS MATURE TOWARD THE TRANSPECOS/LWR PLAINS BY EVENING.
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED. ACTIVITY COULD
EVOLVE INTO A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS WITH GUSTY/DMGG WINDS ACROSS
PARTS OF THE SRN LOW-ROLLING PLAINS/EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE
EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLY CROSSING THE RIO GRANDE FROM
NE MEXICO.
...MID-SOUTH TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...
DISORGANIZED BANDS OF LARGELY ELEVATED TSTMS WILL BE ONGOING ALONG/N
OF A SEWD MOVING CDFNT/CONVECTIVE-INDUCED OUTFLOWS OVER A BROAD ZONE
FROM THE MID-ATLC REGION SWWD TO THE MID-SOUTH AT 12Z FRIDAY. MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO BE TRANSPORTED EWD S OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES THROUGH FRIDAY. COMBINED WITH AMPLE
HEATING...SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FOR NEW TSTMS TO
FORM/INTENSIFY ALONG SRN FRINGES OF MORNING CONVECTION. MORE
ORGANIZED STORMS WILL LIKELY FAVOR KY NEWD INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION
AHEAD OF WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE GRTLKS TROUGH.
BUT...OTHER STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AMIDST COMPARATIVELY STRONGER
INSTABILITY FARTHER W ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TN VLY TOO.
THE ENTIRE REGION WILL RESIDE ALONG SRN PERIPHERY OF 40-45 KTS OF
WSW MID-LVL FLOW RESULTING IN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE KINEMATIC
PROFILES TO SUPPORT BRIEF SUPERCELLS. BUT...MORE THAN
LIKELY...WSW-ENE ORIENTED BANDS OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS WILL
GIVE DMGG WIND GUSTS/HAIL. A DECREASE IN SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED
DURING THE EVENING.
..RACY/ROGERS.. 05/14/2010
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