SWODY1
SPC AC 201231
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010
VALID 201300Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MS VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SERN KS AND
SWRN MO...
...ERN PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO PARTS OF THE LOWER MS
AND TN VALLEYS...
BROAD UPPER TROUGH SRN PLAINS WITH WEAK UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL KS
WILL SHIFT EWD INTO MID/LWR MS VALLEY BY 12Z FRI. OVERNIGHT MCS
ACTIVITY HAS PUSHED EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND
THEN WWD ACROSS N TX TO WHERE IT INTERSECTS COLD FRONT. THE COLD
FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO ERN OK AND THEN EXTENDS SWWD THRU NCENTRAL TX
THEN TO TX BIG BEND.
THE WARM SECTOR FROM CENTRAL TX N TO THE BOUNDARY AND EWD ACROSS LA
INTO CENTRAL MS IS WEAKLY CAPPED AND VERY UNSTABLE...REF 12Z FTW SHV
AND JAN SOUNDINGS WITH MLCAPES FROM 2000-2500 J/KG. ALONG WITH
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM COUPLED WITH 40-50KT OF
DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SURFACE BASED STORMS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE
ONCE CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE REACHED BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH LARGE
HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. SHEAR AND CAPE FAVOR BOTH SUPERCELL AND
MULTICELLULAR MODES. LARGEST HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WOULD BE
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL.
HAVE INDICATED A GREATER THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL THIS REGION BASED ON
THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS NOTED ON MORNING SOUNDINGS.
...SERN KS/SWRN MO...
WILL CONTINUE THE LOW PROBS OF BOTH HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS
REGION AS UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS DURING AFTERNOON. THE THREAT IS
CONTINGENT ON THE AMOUNT OF HEATING THAT CAN OCCUR. IF CURRENT
CLOUDINESS HOLDS THEN LATER OUTLOOKS COULD REDUCE WHAT THREAT THERE
IS.
..HALES/JEWELL.. 05/20/2010
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