SWODY1
SPC AC 281231
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT FRI MAY 28 2010
VALID 281300Z - 291200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MT/ND...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS....
...MT/ND...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING ACROSS
CA/NV THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TONIGHT. INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS PARTS OF MT/WY/WESTERN DAKOTAS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THUNDERSTORMS FORMING AFTER DARK NEAR OR JUST
NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ACROSS FAR EASTERN MT/NORTHEASTERN WY.
THESE STORMS WILL DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN ND DURING THE
EVENING. ELEVATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE
THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM STORMS NEAREST THE BOUNDARY.
...SOUTHEAST STATES...
A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES TODAY.
DESPITE WEAK FORCING...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND AMPLE LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN VA
INTO AL/MS. VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION AND LEAD TO CHAOTIC STORM MOTIONS AND INTERACTIONS.
HOWEVER...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
PROMOTE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGEST STORMS.
..HART/GRAMS.. 05/28/2010
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