DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301215
SWODY1
SPC AC 301213

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 AM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX...OK...AND
KS....

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE NATION IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
COMPLEX TODAY AS THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN THE WESTERN STATES
WEAKENS...LEADING TO A MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BY MONDAY MORNING.
RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF THE
NATION...LIMITING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
HOWEVER...A COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND AMPLE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL FOCUS A MORE CONFIDENT AREA OF AT LEAST
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KS...WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OK...AND THE SOUTHEAST TX PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A FEW MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE LIKELY IN THIS REGION.

...MN/WI...
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TODAY WILL HELP TO INITIATE ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF MN/WI/IA. MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BE
ISOLATED...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND CAPE. A FEW INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ARE
POSSIBLE...BUT ORGANIZED SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT PRESENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

...SOUTHEAST...
A WEAK UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER MS THIS MORNING...WITH AMPLE LOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY TO
THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER ACROSS PARTS OF MS/AL/TN/GA. THE MID
LEVEL COLD POOL HAS BEEN SLOWLY WARMING WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SUGGESTING A DECREASING HAIL THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

..HART/GRAMS.. 05/30/2010

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