SWODY1
SPC AC 151301
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010
VALID 151300Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LWR TN/OH VLYS INTO
THE SRN APPALACHIANS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS/LWR
RIO GRANDE VLY...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPR LOW NOW OVER CO/WY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ENE THIS PERIOD AS A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES MOVE SOMEWHAT MORE RAPIDLY E THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
BROADER SCALE TROUGH INTO THE SRN PLNS/LWR MS VLY. AT THE
SFC...CDFNT ASSOCIATED WITH JET STREAK EXITING THE MID ATLANTIC CST
WILL SETTLE S INTO NC AND TN...WHILE WRN PORTION EDGES N ACROSS AR
AND TX AHEAD OF APPROACHING WRN STATES TROUGH.
...TN VLY TO SRN APPALACHIANS...
TSTMS NOW OVER LA/AR...ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD UPR IMPULSE AND EMBEDDED
MCVS...SHOULD CONTINUE GENERALLY NE TOWARD THE LWR TN AND OH VLYS
LATER TODAY. AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY...ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM BY
AFTN OVER WRN TN AND WRN/NRN MS AS SFC HEATING OF WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT BOOSTS SBCAPE TO AROUND 2000 J/KG. FARTHER E...ANOTHER
AREA OF DEVELOPMENT MAY FOCUS OVER ERN TN/WRN NC...WHERE UPSLOPE
FLOW WILL EXIST BENEATH JET ENTRANCE REGION ALOFT. 35 KT SW TO
WSWLY MID LVL FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT LOOSELY-ORGANIZED BANDS/CLUSTERS
OF STORMS...INCLUDING SUSTAINED MULTICELLS AND PERHAPS A FEW
SHORT-LIVED SUPERCELLS. THESE COULD YIELD DMGG WIND AND HAIL. THE
SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
...SRN RCKYS/LWR RIO GRANDE VLY/S TX...
TSTMS SHOULD FORM WITH SFC HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SRN CO...NM AND SW TX. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY/HEATING WILL
SHOULD DEVELOP OVER SE NM AND SW TX...WHERE FAIRLY MOIST /PW TO 1
INCH/ ESELY LOW LVL FLOW WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF UPR IMPULSE
APPROACHING FROM NRN SONORA/SE AZ. 50 KT WSWLY DEEP SHEAR WITH A
SIZABLE LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY A COUPLE TORNADOES. THE STORMS SHOULD
EVOLVE INTO AN ESE-MOVING MCS BY EVE...WITH SPORADIC SVR
HAIL/HIGH WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE EVENING.
FARTHER N...MORE ISOLD STORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER NM/CO IN
MORE LIMITED MOISTURE MAY POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLD SVR HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. FALLING MID-LVL TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED
UPR LOW AND MARGINAL SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT BRIEFLY ORGANIZED
STORMS. SOME OF THE NM ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP EWD INTO THE TX PNHDL
AND WRN OK THROUGH EARLY SUN.
...CNTRL GULF CST...
WEAK UPR VORT /PER SATELLITE/...CONFLUENT...VERY MOIST LOW LVL
FLOW...AND MODEST LOW LVL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT ISOLD
STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO THROUGH THIS AFTN ALONG THE
CNTRL GULF CST.
..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 05/15/2010
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