SWODY2
SPC AC 110551
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
MIDWEST...
...PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...
UPR LOW DIGGING INTO THE SWRN STATES WILL TRANSLATE ENE AS A
POSITIVE-TILT SYSTEM INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. A LEE
LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ENE INTO ERN KS
AND TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. TRAILING THE
LOW...A CDFNT WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO SURGE SEWD THROUGH THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTN/NIGHT. TO THE E...A WRMFNT WILL
CONTINUE NWD THROUGH THE MID/UPR MS VLY AND MIDWEST.
...PLAINS TO MIDWEST...
A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPR 60S DEW POINTS WILL
RECOVER NWD THROUGH OK/ERN KS INTO THE MID-MS VLY BENEATH A
SUBSTANTIAL CAP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN. COMBINED WITH STRONG
HEATING...RESULTANT MLCAPES SHOULD BE OVER 2000 J/KG.
ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
EVENING...CONCERN FOR SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE
ALONG/S OF THE WRMFNT FROM ECNTRL KS INTO WCNTRL IL DURING PEAK
HEATING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FCST
HODOGRAPHS EXHIBITING STRONG LLVL SHEAR. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
DEVELOP ENE AND BECOME ELEVATED INTO THE UPR MS VLY/UPR MIDWEST WITH
AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE EJECTS ONTO THE
PLAINS...INCREASING LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN
ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL/ERN KS SWD INTO W TX NEAR/AFTER SUNSET.
INITIAL STORMS MAY BRIEFLY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS...BUT THERE WILL
BE A TENDENCY FOR A MORE ANAFRONTAL TYPE EVENT AS THE FRONT SURGES
SEWD. LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SVR
THREATS. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SEWD INTO THE PLAINS AND MID-MS
VLY OVERNIGHT.
..RACY.. 05/11/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment