SWODY2
SPC AC 140559
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TN VALLEY
AND SRN APPALACHIANS...
...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS SATURDAY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES THE SRN PLAINS.
AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
SATURDAY MORNING FROM THE TX PANHANDLE EWD ACROSS OK ALONG A ZONE OF
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...A DRYLINE IS FORECAST TO
BE LOCATED IN THE PECOS REGION OF WEST TX WITH THE WEST EDGE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING NEWD FROM SE NM INTO NW TX. FROM THIS
CORRIDOR TO THE SOUTHEAST...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S F
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IN PLACE BY MIDDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN
AGREEMENT INITIATING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MOISTURE GRADIENT ON
THE CAPROCK OF WEST TX AND SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE WITH THIS ACTIVITY
MOVING EWD ACROSS WEST TX SATURDAY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
WEST TX AT 00Z SUNDAY SHOW 50 TO 60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 7.5 C/KM. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND LARGE HAIL. AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW
INCREASES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...A FEW
TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT
SUPERCELLS. THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SUPERCELLS WILL ORGANIZE
INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EWD INTO NCNTRL TX AND SRN OK DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A SEVERE THREAT MAY CONTINUE AFTER MIDNIGHT NEAR
THE LOW-LEVEL JET AND WITH ANY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WITH ACCESS TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY.
...TN VALLEY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE TN AND OH VALLEYS
SATURDAY WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE FROM THE
OZARKS EWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S F WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE IN AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM
THE OZARKS EWD TO THE CAROLINAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE
BOUNDARY AT 21Z SATURDAY SHOW THE STRONGEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE
WEST EDGE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE MS RIVER AND IN THE TN
VALLEY SUGGESTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY WHERE INSTABILITY BECOMES MAXIMIZED. HOWEVER...THE
COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR IN MOST AREAS SHOULD
SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED LINE-SEGMENTS.
..BROYLES.. 05/14/2010
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