SWODY2
SPC AC 150543
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1243 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...
...SRN PLAINS/MID-MS VALLEY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS SUNDAY.
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...MODEL FORECASTS HAVE A CLUSTER
OF ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TX MOVING THE
CLUSTER EWD AWAY FROM THE SLIGHT RISK AREA BY MIDDAY. IN THE WAKE OF
THIS CONVECTION...MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP MODERATE INSTABILITY
ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND CNTRL TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z IN WCNTRL TX SHOW MODERATE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ENHANCED BY SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW-LEVELS.
THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS THE
ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...MODEL
FORECASTS ARE NOT AS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AS LAST NIGHT WITH THE NAM
SHOWING WEAKER INSTABILITY AND SEVERAL MODELS KEEPING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MORE ISOLATED. FOR THIS REASON...UNCERTAINTY EXISTS
CONCERNING THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IN WCNTRL TX. ATTM...WILL LEAVE THE
SLIGHT IN PLACE BUT REDUCE THE AREAL EXTENT.
FURTHER EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MID-MS VALLY...THE
MODELS SHOW AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG THE NRN EDGE OF
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE MID 60S F.
AS SFC TEMPS WARM SUNDAY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
ALONG THIS CORRIDOR IN A MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO THIS
ALONG WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN THE AFTERNOON...THE
STRONGER CORES MAY HAVE A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT.
..BROYLES.. 05/15/2010
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