SWODY2
SPC AC 160550
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 AM CDT SUN MAY 16 2010
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CAROLINAS...
...WEST TX/ERN NM...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. STRONG
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST BY MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS WEST TX WITH AN
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NNWWD INTO ERN NM. ALTHOUGH
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK ACROSS WEST TX MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A CLUSTER OF STORMS
ON THE CAPROCK AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS MONDAY EVENING.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS NEAR LUBBOCK AT 00Z TUESDAY SHOW SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND ABOUT 40 KT OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CREATE AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND LARGE HAIL. SOME
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. FOR THIS
REASON...WILL DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
ACROSS WEST TX.
...CAROLINAS/SRN APPALACHIANS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY MONDAY WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM A SFC LOW IN THE OH VALLEY SEWD
INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INITIATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BOUNDARY AND ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOP A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN NC
ON THE WEST SIDE OF A 30 TO 40 KT LOW-LEVEL JET. IF THIS
OCCURS...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY SUGGEST A
THREAT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS WILL EXIST DUE TO MODERATE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AND 25 TO 30 KT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL
THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN AREAS WITH MAXIMIZED INSTABILITY.
..BROYLES.. 05/16/2010
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