SWODY3
SPC AC 020650
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010
VALID 041200Z - 051200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE WAVE TRAIN WITHIN THE
POLAR WESTERLIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF STATES. MORE
SPECIFICALLY...A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE NERN STATES IN ADVANCE OF AN
INTENSE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE DEVELOPING EWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER BETWEEN THE NRN PLAINS AND S-CNTRL CANADIAN PRAIRIES.
FARTHER W...AN UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WHILE DIGGING SEWD FROM THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST INTO THE
PACIFIC NW. IN THE LOWER LATITUDES...A DE-AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES.
...SERN STATES...
A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND S OF SURFACE
BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL BECOME ALIGNED LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE
MIDLEVEL FLOW REGIME. HOWEVER...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND PERSISTENT
TSTM ACTIVITY OCCURRING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR.
NONETHELESS...THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT DEEP SWLY SHEAR AND THE MOIST
ENVIRONMENT MAY YIELD ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS...MAINLY DURING THE
PEAK OF THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND...
00Z MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES CONSIDERABLE VARIANCE IN THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
TUESDAY...AS WELL AS THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE FRONT. THE LOWER
AMPLITUDE...MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GFS WERE
GENERALLY FOLLOWED. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...HOWEVER THE MOBILE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES OF AOB -20 C AT 500 MB. THE NET RESULT
WILL BE FOR POCKETS OF AT LEAST WEAK CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY TO
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WHEN COUPLED WITH
40-50 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP MAY FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH THE THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND
SURFACE FRONT...AND THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL
DEVELOP...ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED ATTM.
..MEAD.. 05/02/2010
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