SWODY3
SPC AC 030708
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0208 AM CDT MON MAY 03 2010
VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW INITIALLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
PROGRESS RAPIDLY NEWD THROUGH ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC IN RESPONSE TO THE
SEWD PROGRESSION...AND CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION...OF AN UPSTREAM
SYSTEM OVER THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER DISTURBANCE WILL PUSH EWD THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
ARCING SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...AND THEN NWWD TO A DEEPENING
CYCLONE DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES.
...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY...
DIURNAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER
PARTS OF LOWER MI SWWD INTO OH...IND AND PERHAPS IL AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREADS A MODESTLY
MOIST /I.E. DEW POINTS IN THE 50S/ AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY UNSTABLE
AIR MASS. THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO RESIDE ON THE SRN FRINGE
OF A STRONG WLY/SWLY WIND FIELD ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL
SYSTEM...SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
ONLY LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INTRODUCED DUE TO NOTABLE
DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY FORECAST WITHIN
THE PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS BY BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE.
..MEAD.. 05/03/2010
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