SWODY3
SPC AC 040703
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT TUE MAY 04 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
THE PRIMARY FEATURES OF INTEREST DURING THE DAY THREE PERIOD ARE
PROGRESSIVE MIDLEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100+ KT UPPER-LEVEL JET
STREAK WHICH WILL TRANSLATE FROM THE ROCKIES EWD INTO THE NRN AND
CNTRL PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A CYCLOGENETIC LEE LOW OVER ERN CO
WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE OK/TX PNHDLS PRIOR ACCELERATING
NEWD TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. A WARM FRONT
INITIALLY FROM THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE OZARK PLATEAU INTO TN VALLEY
WILL LIFT NWD...REACHING THE LOWER MO VALLEY EWD INTO THE SRN OH
VALLEY LATE. MEANWHILE...A DRY LINE WILL SHARPEN THROUGH THE DAY
FROM THE MIGRATORY LOW PRESSURE SWD THROUGH WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX.
THIS FEATURE WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT SURGING
SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT.
...ERN KS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY...
04/00Z MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT THE DEVELOPING
SYSTEM WARM SECTOR OVER THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTENT WITH DEW POINTS
LARGELY IN THE 50S. CAPPING ASSOCIATED WITH A WELL-DEFINED EML IS
EXPECTED TO INHIBIT DIURNAL STORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRY LINE AND
EWD ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
BY THURSDAY NIGHT...THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL SERVE TO
ENHANCE ASCENT/MOISTURE FLUX ALONG AND TO THE N OF RETREATING
SURFACE WARM FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING ELEVATED STORM FORMATION.
GIVEN THE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING CLOUD-BEARING
SHEAR...THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THE PRIMARY HAZARD BEING HAIL.
..MEAD.. 05/04/2010
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