SWODY3
SPC AC 110728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010
VALID 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VLY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL/SWRN TX...
...SYNOPSIS...
THE STRONG SERN STATES UPR RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VLY REGIONS ON THURSDAY AS THE PLAINS
UPR TROUGH CONTINUES EWD. ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO
THE UPR OH VLY WITH THE TRAILING CDFNT SETTLING SLOWLY SWD INTO THE
OH VLY AND SRN PLAINS.
...OH VLY...
ELEVATED CONVECTION IS APT TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/UPR OH VLY ALONG NOSE OF A SSWLY LLJ. LLVL
FLOW WILL TRANSPORT INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE NEWD AHEAD OF THE
CDFNT BY AFTN AND WITH STRONG HEATING MODEST INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED
TO EVOLVE ALONG SRN FLANKS OF MORNING ACTIVITY. SFC-BASED
STORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SUPERCELLS...MAY FORM ALONG/AHEAD OF
THE FRONT AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.
...CNTRL/SWRN TX...
AIR MASS WILL HEAT CONSIDERABLY ALONG/S OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
EXPECTED OVER CNTRL TX THURSDAY AFTN WHERE MLCAPES COULD APPROACH
3000 J/KG. PRIMARY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN N OF THE
BOUNDARY...BUT STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND MAGNITUDE OF
INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE
HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT AS IT BACKBUILDS TOWARD THE BIG BEND
REGION...TRANSITIONING INTO MORE OF A HVY RNFL THREAT
OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS OK.
..RACY.. 05/11/2010
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