SWOD48
SPC AC 140856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE WRN U.S.
MONDAY AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO THE MS VALLEY. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN PARTS OF THE ERN
SEABOARD MONDAY/DAY 4 AND TUESDAY/DAY 5. FROM HERE...THE MODELS MOVE
THE ROCKIES UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE INTO GREAT PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 6
AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE ROCKIES. THE MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE WRN U.S. SYSTEM.
THIS PATTERN WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IN THE SRN PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY/DAY 6 THROUGH FRIDAY/DAY 8.
ALTHOUGH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THE LACK OF A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL JET ACROSS THE CNTRL
AND ERN U.S. SUGGESTS PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW DURING THE DAY 4 TO
8 PERIOD.
..BROYLES.. 05/14/2010
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