SWOD48
SPC AC 150856
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0356 AM CDT SAT MAY 15 2010
VALID 181200Z - 231200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE DAY 4
TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT
PLAINS AND AN UPPER TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WRN STATES. THE ECMWF AND
GFS MOVE THIS FEATURE EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 AND
DEVELOPS A CLOSED UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MOIST
WARM SECTOR SHOULD EXIST IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE
POSSIBLE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON THURSDAY/DAY 6...THE ECMWF AND GFS
SOLUTIONS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE PLAINS WITH BOTH MODELS MOVING THE SYSTEM
INTO THE MS VALLEY BY FRIDAY/DAY 7. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WILL
BE POSSIBLE BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. ATTM...ORGANIZATION WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IN THE CNTRL
U.S. DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
AREA DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
..BROYLES.. 05/15/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment