SWOD48
SPC AC 240842
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
VALID 271200Z - 011200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SVR THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT AN INTENSIFYING ZONAL
BELT OF WESTERLIES MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC AND BEGIN TO NOSE
TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST BY THE BEGINNING OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. AND IT APPEARS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT THIS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO THE EASTWARD ACCELERATION OF A DOWNSTREAM CLOSED
LOW/TROUGH...INLAND AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES...IN A MANNER THAT COULD
SUPPORT INCREASING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM THE LEE OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS
FRIDAY. THE GREATEST SEVERE RISK WITH THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPEARS
TO EXIST ON SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA.
HOWEVER...THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCLEAR...AND
ENOUGH VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODEL DATA TO PRECLUDE
CONFIDENTLY DELINEATING A REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT AREA AT THE PRESENT
TIME.
..KERR.. 05/24/2010
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