SWOD48
SPC AC 250853
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 AM CDT TUE MAY 25 2010
VALID 281200Z - 021200Z
...SVR STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N CNTRL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...
MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT AN
INTENSIFYING ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL EVOLVE ACROSS THE PACIFIC
AND NOSE TOWARD THE PACIFIC COAST DURING THIS PERIOD. SPLIT FLOW
WILL LIKELY PERSIST DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AMERICA...WITH
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING THE MORE PROMINENT BELT BECOMING LESS AMPLIFIED
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL STATES. THE SPREAD AMONG THE MODELS
AND MODEL ENSEMBLES BECOMES QUITE LARGE CONCERNING SHORT WAVE
DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THIS REGIME. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
THAT ONE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC COAST INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE THIS WEEK...BEFORE LIFTING
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT FORCING FOR UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION... STRENGTHENING VERTICAL SHEAR AND DESTABILIZATION
WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY.
..KERR.. 05/25/2010
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