SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010441
INZ000-KYZ000-TNZ000-ALZ000-ILZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-010545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1141 PM CDT FRI APR 30 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL-SRN IL/WRN-SWRN IND/SERN MO/WRN KY/WRN
TN/NRN MS/CENTRAL AND ERN AR
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 117...118...
VALID 010441Z - 010545Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 117...118...CONTINUES.
NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED BY 05-06Z FROM FAR NRN MS THROUGH WRN TN...WRN
KY TO PARTS OF SWRN AND POTENTIALLY CENTRAL IND.
AT 0435Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A QUASI-LINEAR SYSTEM
EXTENDING FROM SWRN IL THROUGH SERN MO TO NERN AR...WITH TWO PRIMARY
BOWING SEGMENTS /1. IN SRN IL AND 2. IN NERN AR/. CURRENT TRACKS OF
THESE BOWS IS NE AT 40 KT WITH BOTH FEATURES EXITING WW 117 AND 118
BY 06Z INTO SWRN IND AND WRN TN...RESPECTIVELY.
00Z NAM/GFS AND 12Z ECMWF SHOW SSWLY WINDS STRENGTHENING INTO THE
LOWER OH VALLEY AIDING IN THE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SUPPORTING DESTABILIZATION WITHIN CORRIDOR OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES EXTENDING NEWD ALONG AND JUST EAST OF ONGOING STORMS. THE
SPEED OF THE SRN IL BOW SEGMENT SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY OUTRUN THE
DESTABILIZATION PROCESS INTO SWRN IND... LIMITING THE NRN EXTENT OF
SEVERE STORMS /DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADO THREAT/. FARTHER S...RUC
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ENVIRONMENT IS ALREADY CONDUCIVE FOR
SURFACE BASED STORMS WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR /SFC-1 KM
SHEAR 40-50 KT PER MEM/PAH WSR-88D VWP DATA/ AND MODERATE
INSTABILITY.
..PETERS.. 05/01/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...HUN...PAH...ILX...MEG...JAN...
LSX...LZK...SGF...SHV...
LAT...LON 40308949 40378743 40168636 38498659 37648707 36498759
34988817 34138828 33848992 33509119 33039219 32909435
33039528 33809530 34909319 36069168 36499133 37039076
37888967 38708943 39478955 40308949
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