SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020733
TNZ000-ALZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-020900-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0458
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 AM CDT SUN MAY 02 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN AR...WRN-MIDDLE TN...MO
BOOT-HEEL...NWRN AL...NRN MS.
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 127...128...130...
VALID 020733Z - 020900Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH
127...128...130...CONTINUES.
PORTIONS OF THESE WWS MAY BE REPLACED BEFORE SCHEDULED 09Z
EXPIRATION OF WW 127...GIVEN EXPECTED CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
POTENTIALLY TORNADIC SUPERCELLS AND FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF
PARAMETERS...ESPECIALLY E OF MS RIVER.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW OVER SERN
MO...SSWWD ACROSS LIT/SHV AREAS. TSTM DEVELOPMENT/PERSISTENCE ALONG
THAT BOUNDARY STILL IS POSSIBLE...WITH FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
DESPITE SLIGHTLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS. MAIN AREA OF CONVECTIVE
LIFT...HOWEVER...SHOULD REMAIN ASSOCIATED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE
AXIS AND ACCOMPANYING BAND OF CONVECTION EXTENDING AT 07Z FROM
GIBSON COUNTY TN SWD ACROSS GLH AREA TO NERN CORNER LA. THIS
ACTIVITY INCLUDES SEMI-DISCRETE STORM WITH IMPRESSIVE/PERSISTENT
MESOCYCLONE OVER NRN MS MOVING NNEWD TOWARD HARDEMAN COUNTY TN AND
AREAS E OF MKL. CONVECTION IS BACKBUILDING ALONG THAT CONVERGENCE
LINE...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO VERY MOIST/HIGH-THETAE AIR MASS
CHARACTERIZED BY LOW-MID 70S F SFC DEW POINTS AND LIFTED PARCELS
ROOTED AT OR VERY NEAR SFC. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES CONSISTENTLY IN 50-70 KT
RANGE. LARGEST SRH WILL BE E OF THIS BOUNDARY AND NWD ACROSS OLDER
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM SRN-MIDDLE TO NWRN TN...WHERE
NEAR-SFC WINDS ARE RELATIVELY BACKED. VWP AND MODIFIED MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE EFFECTIVE SRH RANGING FROM AROUND 300 J/KG OVER
CENTRAL MS TO GREATER THAN 600 J/KG PORTIONS MIDDLE TN. BUOYANCY
BECOMES WEAKER AND MLCINH STRONGER WITH NEWD EXTENT..BUT CHANGE IS
RATHER GRADUAL/DIFFUSE...WITH THETAE ADVECTION EXPECTED TO EXPAND
FAVORABLY UNSTABLE REGION NEWD ACROSS NERN MS...MID TN AND PORTIONS
NWRN AL.
..EDWARDS.. 05/02/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...
LAT...LON 35308590 34808707 34118767 33768825 32978983 33219131
33509254 34719186 35569132 36459090 36489024 36629019
36628997 36438997 36428968 36498948 36478801 36688804
36618561 35308590
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