SWOMCD
SPC MCD 092042
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-092245-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0504
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0342 PM CDT SUN MAY 09 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW TX...WRN AND CNTRL OK INTO SRN KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 092042Z - 092245Z
PERSISTENT AREA OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS
OCCURRING WITHIN A ZONE OF STEEPER ISENTROPIC ASCENT...ON THE NOSE
OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...NORTH OF A RETREATING SURFACE
FRONT ACROSS WEST CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. LATEST RUC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT THIS FORCING IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE
CAPE...TO AROUND 1000 J/KG...IN THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG CLOUD BEARING LAYER SHEAR. SIGNIFICANT
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY ANYTIME SOON...BUT
SMALL TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN
STRONGER CELLS...AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z.
..KERR.. 05/09/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...FWD...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34900004 35730017 36510004 37389927 37449776 36909602
34589649 33809690 33129834 32939990 34210001 34900004
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