SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101746
OKZ000-KSZ000-101945-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0507
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1246 PM CDT MON MAY 10 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 101746Z - 101945Z
SIGNS FOR STORM INITIATION ARE BEING CLOSELY MONITORED. ONCE
ACTIVITY DEVELOPS...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY...WITH AN INCREASING RISK
FOR TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL
BE REQUIRED...PERHAPS WITHIN THE HOUR.
AS A 90+ KT CYCLONIC...WESTERLY...500 MB JET STREAK CONTINUES TO
NOSE EASTWARD THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENING/MIXING PROGRESSES TO THE WEST
OF THE DRY LINE...DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM APPEARS LIKELY TO
SUPPORT A RAPID DRY LINE SURGE ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. MODELS HAVE BEEN SUGGESTIVE THAT STRONGEST
LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION/CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL BECOME
FOCUSED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL JET AXIS...ACROSS
NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
THIS FORCING...COUPLED WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION AS LOW/MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND LOWER/MID 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS ADVECT INTO
THE REGION...CONDITIONS APPEAR LIKELY TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG
SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...PERHAPS AS EARLY AS 19-21Z.
ALTHOUGH 50+ KT 850 MB FLOW WILL BECOME SOMEWHAT VEERED...TO A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT...SURFACE/BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW MAY REMAIN
BACKED...AT A SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY COMPONENT... WITHIN A BROAD
RETREATING WARM FRONTAL ZONE. THIS PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN LARGE
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE... SUPPORTIVE OF
STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOSCYCLONES AND TORNADOES. SOME UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS CONCERNING HOW QUICKLY STORMS WILL BECOME TORNADIC. BUT
TORNADO POTENTIAL CERTAINLY SEEMS LIKELY TO INCREASE PRIOR TO
00Z...AS RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTH OF THE
RED RIVER TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS/ NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE... VERY LARGE HAIL AND
LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOST VIGOROUS
STORMS.
..KERR.. 05/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36579927 37259868 37619763 36829624 35969628 35709689
35649767 35619848 35829878 36579927
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