SWOMCD
SPC MCD 120734
MOZ000-KSZ000-120830-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0523
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0234 AM CDT WED MAY 12 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...KS TO CENTRAL/NRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153...
VALID 120734Z - 120830Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 153
CONTINUES.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE NERN NM/SERN CO BORDER...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD THROUGH
FAR SRN KS...THEN ENEWD INTO SWRN MO /25 N SGF/ TO EAST CENTRAL MO
/20 N FAM/...AND THROUGH THE SRN QUARTER OF IL TO SRN IND. WSR-88D
VADS AND WIND PROFILERS OVER THE SRN PLAINS INDICATED A BROAD...
STRONG LLJ /50-65 KT/ EXTENDING INTO KS AND MO. THUS...STRONG LOW
LEVEL WAA WILL BE MAINTAINED INTO THESE TWO STATES THROUGH DAYBREAK.
...KS/CENTRAL-ERN NEB...
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE STRONGEST STORM WAS TRACKING ENEWD
THROUGH THE WRN HALF OF WW 153. AT 725Z...THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 55
NNW P28. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAD ALSO DEVELOPED RECENTLY OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KS INTO CENTRAL NEB. THIS LATTER ACTIVITY
APPEARED TO BE LOCATED WITHIN A WAA REGIME IN THE VICINITY OF AN 850
MB FRONT WHICH EXTENDED FROM SWRN KS INTO SERN NEB TO SRN IA.
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR /EXCEEDING 50 KT/ WITH VECTORS ORIENTED
PARALLEL TO THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITHIN WW 153 WHERE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN CLOSER TO A
MOIST AND MORE STRONGLY UNSTABLE INFLOW REGIME. FARTHER N...65 KT
SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z OVER NEB/NRN KS AND NRN EXTENT OF THE WAA
REGIME INTO NEB WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS SPREADING NEWD
THROUGH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...THIS NRN ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
FARTHER AWAY FROM A STRONGER INFLOW OF GREATER INSTABILITY...THUS
TENDING TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT.
...ERN KS/CENTRAL MO TO WRN IL...
TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SERN-EAST CENTRAL KS ALONG THE SWRN
FLANK OF A LARGE MCS WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY EXTENDING ENEWD THROUGH
MUCH OF CENTRAL MO /NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT/. FORCING FOR ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO A SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX CURRENTLY TRACKING NEWD
INTO SRN MO PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS
MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH MO TOWARD WRN IL. EMBEDDED LINE SEGMENTS
WITHIN ERN KS/MO MCS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE STRONG
SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE WARM FRONT. ALTHOUGH LOCALLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE E AND NE OF WW
153...IT APPEARS THAT HEAVY RAINFALL RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT ACROSS MO...AND EVENTUALLY REACHING WRN IL. PW VALUES WILL
INCREASE AT AND ABOVE 1.5 INCHES SUPPORTING HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AS
STORMS TRAIN ENEWD.
..PETERS.. 05/12/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
LAT...LON 37030122 38070132 39180012 39919899 39369683 39069634
38979513 38779387 38889278 39169145 38019149 37599362
37249527 37229758 37030122
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