SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141209
TXZ000-141415-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0555
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0709 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...S CENTRAL TX
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 141209Z - 141415Z
QUASI-STATIONARY MCS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCAL RAINFALL RATES
OF 2-3 INCHES PER HOUR FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WITH AN
ASSOCIATED RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.
A PLUME OF RICH MOISTURE /PW VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES/ IS SPREADING NWD
ACROSS S CENTRAL TX ON A 30-40 KT SSELY LLJ. THIS MOISTURE
FEED...ALONG WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LITTLE CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION PER THE 12Z CRP SOUNDING...IS MAINTAINING A
QUASI-STATIONARY MCS JUST W OF SAT. LITTLE NET MOTION OF THE MCS IS
EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A RESULT OF LOCAL WIND PROFILES THAT
FAVOR CONTINUED BACK-BUILDING OF CONVECTION SWD TO OFFSET SLOW NWD
MOVEMENT OF INDIVIDUAL CELLS. THE MCS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP A COLD
POOL LATER THIS MORNING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS TO THE S
WARMS AND DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL INCREASES SOME...AT WHICH TIME
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE EWD/NEWD. UNTIL THEN...THE
TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE SAME AREAS WILL RESULT IN A SUBSTANTIAL
FLASH FLOOD RISK WITH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 3
INCHES PER HOUR FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..THOMPSON.. 05/14/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EWX...
LAT...LON 29129826 28849883 29099921 29629935 30039937 30369916
30369851 29709818 29129826
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