MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0558

ACUS11 KWNS 141556
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141556
PAZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-DCZ000-WVZ000-141800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0558
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1056 AM CDT FRI MAY 14 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN PA...ERN WV THROUGH NRN AND CNTRL VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 141556Z - 141800Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM SRN PORTIONS OF THE NERN STATES INTO
THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION. DAMAGING WIND AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS ARE BEING
MONITORED FOR A WW.

AT MID-DAY A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM ERN OH SWWD THROUGH WRN KY. LOW
60S DEWPOINTS HAVE ADVECTED NEWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS...MID ATLANTIC AND SRN PARTS OF THE
NERN STATES...SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT. THE 12Z RAOB DATA INDICATE 7+
C/KM LAPSE RATES EXIST ABOVE THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...AND THE
ATMOSPHERE IS BECOMING MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO
1500 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR 80F. CONVECTION IS
INCREASING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND
WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD THIS AFTERNOON. A BELT OF STRONG WSWLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP LAYER WINDS WITH 40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THIS REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS.

..DIAL.. 05/14/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...

LAT...LON 41037730 40057656 38427709 37667813 37507966 37908042
38678038 40027995 40957911 41037730

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