SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201357
MSZ000-LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-201500-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0632
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0857 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NRN/WRN MS SWWD THROUGH NRN LA INTO NERN
LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 201357Z - 201500Z
REMAINING PORTION OF WW 193 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 14Z.
HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN ADDITIONAL WW
BY AS SOON AS MID TO LATE MORNING.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A
DECAYING MCS FROM THE MS RIVER NEAR MEM SWWD TO GLH TO N OF SHV AND
TYR. MEANWHILE...A WARM FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY N OF GLH SEWD INTO W-CNTRL AL. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDING DATA
AND CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A VERY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE EFFECTIVE WARM SECTOR WITH THE CAP
GENERALLY WEAKENING WITH EWD EXTENT FROM FWD-SHV-JAN.
LATEST SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT PERSISTENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ABOVE-MENTIONED BOUNDARIES...COUPLED WITH WAA
ALONG DIURNALLY WEAKENING LLJ AND INFLUENCE OF A VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVING THROUGH THE ARKLATEX REGION SHOULD ALL SERVE TO REINVIGORATE
TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA LATER THIS MORNING. THE
COMBINATION OF AN ALREADY MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
40-50 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO OR TWO.
..MEAD.. 05/20/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...SHV...
LAT...LON 32929200 33589099 34149060 34919005 34588860 33678888
32089046 31559242 31399389 31589469 32139500 32579468
32929200
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