MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0672

ACUS11 KWNS 231704
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 231703
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-231800-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0672
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1203 PM CDT SUN MAY 23 2010

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SC/NC/VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 231703Z - 231800Z

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS AND
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IN ERN NC CONTINUES...WHILE THE CU FIELD IS
BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG A BOUNDARY/WEAK SURFACE TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDING SWWD OF THIS THROUGH FLO AND CAE. DESTABILIZATION IS
OCCURRING BEHIND THE COMPLEX...IN PART DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING...AND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY...A SEA
BREEZE IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INLAND ALONG THE COAST...AND BOTH
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE MAY BE FAVORED AREAS FOR
INITIAL/CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT.

FARTHER N IN VA...CU FIELD IS BEGINNING TO INCREASE ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN VA ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH
AXIS. AS STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF A VORT MAX IN ERN
WV/NWRN VA...MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND AREAS OF FAVORED SURFACE
CONVERGENCE MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFT STRENGTH...ALLOWING FOR BRIEFLY
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. ALTHOUGH FLOW REMAINS WEAK...STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES/PRECIPITATION LOADING WILL ENHANCE DOWNDRAFT
STRENGTH...WHILE COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL.

..HURLBUT.. 05/23/2010

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...CHS...CAE...
GSP...

LAT...LON 34797747 33507912 33187969 33078063 33568135 33968126
34288078 35468018 36338005 37137990 38047934 38267782
37657701 37007649 35537648 34797747

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