SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301957
KSZ000-OKZ000-302100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0750
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN MAY 30 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 301957Z - 302100Z
ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED BETWEEN 20-22Z INVOF A COLD
FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY E/SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL KS AND WRN OK THIS
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...WHILE A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT DOES
EXIST. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG-SEVERE STORM COVERAGE MAY BE LOW WHICH
IS RESULTING IN AN UNCERTAINTY FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE WEATHER
WATCH. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL
WW ISSUANCE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON.
19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW OF TOP
SWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS /THROUGH KINGMAN COUNTY/ TO WRN OK. A
SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED OVER NWRN OK WITH A DRY LINE EXTENDING SEWD
FROM THE LOW/TRIPLE POINT THROUGH CENTRAL AND SRN OK /OR JUST WSW OF
OKC-OUN-ADM LINE/. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WINDS ACROSS THE
WARM SECTOR HAVE RECENTLY BACKED TO SELY...RESULTING IN INCREASED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS/NORTH
CENTRAL-NWRN OK. THIS IS VERIFIED BY AN INCREASE IN CU/TCU FIELD
ALONG THE FRONT IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS TO NWRN OK SINCE 18Z...WITH ICT
WSR-88D SHOWING AN INCREASE IN REFLECTIVITY OVER KINGMAN COUNTY.
DESPITE WEAK FORCING ALOFT...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
INCREASE SOME IN COVERAGE AS THE COLD FRONT SPREADS FURTHER SEWD
INTO OK. SBCINH HAS BEEN ELIMINATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR
SUPPORTING TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH MULTICELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STEEP
LAPSE RATES WITH MIDLEVEL VALUES AROUND 8 C/KM AND MLCAPE VALUES
2000-3000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS AS THE
PRIMARY THREATS. ALTHOUGH LOWER TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER
WEAK...BACKED SELY WARM SECTOR SURFACE WINDS BENEATH WLY MID LEVEL
WINDS MAY SUPPORT A NON-ZERO TORNADO THREAT...GIVEN DIRECTIONAL
SHEAR.
CONFIDENCE IN ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA
IS INCREASED BY MODEL ANALYSIS. HOWEVER...OVERALL COVERAGE SHOULD
BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED SPATIALLY. SPECIFICALLY...THE 15Z WRF-HRRR AND
12Z NAM/15Z SREF ETA-KF CONTROL MEMBER INDICATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO NORTH-CENTRAL/NWRN
OK BETWEEN 20-22Z...WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/SPREADING SEWD INTO OK
TO ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 00-01Z FROM TUL TO FSI.
..PETERS.. 05/30/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 36699902 37769811 38539713 38399643 36949622 35879663
35209736 35149831 35289896 35739920 36699902
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