DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 021612
SWODY1
SPC AC 021610

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT WED JUN 02 2010

VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF NM AND THE TX
PANHANDLE INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY...

...UPPER OH VALLEY...
REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS CONTINUES TO TRACK ENEWD 30-35KT AND
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SWRN ONTARIO INTO NRN OH. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL POTENTIALLY LEAD TO STORMS
RE-INTENSIFYING BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN NY/PA. GIVEN
THAT MLCAPES SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 500 J/KG AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ARE ONLY AROUND 6C/KM...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LOCALIZED
DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50 KT.

...OK INTO LOWER OH VALLEY...
OVERNIGHT STORMS OVER THE MID MS VALLEY HAVE PUSHED THE EFFECTIVE
SURFACE BOUNDARY WELL S OF COLD FRONT. AT MID MORNING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY EXTENDS WWD FROM SCENTRAL IL TO SWRN MO INTO NWRN OK.
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODERATE CAPE VALUES WILL PROMOTE
CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LATER THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE
FRONT/BOUNDARIES...WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE ACROSS PARTS OF
MO/IL/IN/OH WHERE HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED.
ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREATS.

...NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO APPROACH MAINE BY LATE AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AROUND 40 KT...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES
WILL ONLY BE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.
WITH MLCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG BY MID AFTERNOON SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP. A FEW ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...NORTHEAST NM/TX PANHANDLE...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CO NOTED IN W/V IMAGERY WILL TRACK EASTWARD
AND PROMOTE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHERN CO/NORTHERN NM. THESE STORMS WILL EMERGE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING...WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INCREASING
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT. ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

..HALES/DARROW.. 06/02/2010

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