SWODY1
SPC AC 061622
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT SUN JUN 06 2010
VALID 061630Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NJ...FAR ERN
PA...SERN NY...RI...MA...CT...SRN VT/NH...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NEW ENGLAND SWWD INTO THE
TN VALLEY...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NM NEWD INTO SRN
SD...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN THE NRN FL PANHANDLE AND SRN
GA...
A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
STRONG TORNADOES...ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
FROM DELAWARE/NJ NEWD INTO CNTRL/SRN NEW ENGLAND...
...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NEWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND...
DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL NY WILL SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO MAINE
BY LATE IN THE DAY. ASSOCIATED TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD PROGRESS
EWD AND EXTEND FROM THE NRN ATLANTIC COAST SSWWD INTO ERN VA/NC BY
EVENING. SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...ARE ALREADY ONGOING
ACROSS FROM ERN NY SWWD INTO WV...INCLUDING SEMI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
AND BROKEN LINES. THESE STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY AS WARMING
TEMPERATURES FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIR MASS. THE DEGREE OF
INSTABILITY PLUS 50-60 KT WSWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE
OF NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES AND DAMAGING
WINDS. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR STRONG TORNADOES IS EXPECTED ALONG
THE WARM FRONT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LIFTING NWD FROM CT/MA AND
INTO SRN NH/SERN ME THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OTHER STORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES SWWD INTO THE TN VALLEY. VERY WARM AND MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER APPEARS MOST FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE IN THIS REGION
WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MORE VEERED.
...NERN NM NWD INTO SERN WY AND NEB/SRN SD...
ELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS HAS RETURNED MOISTURE BACK TO THE FOOTHILLS
AND MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A FEW STORMS TO EVOLVE INTO
SUPERCELLS ACROSS THE ERN CO PLAINS. TONIGHT...ELEVATED STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF NEB/SRN SD IN ZONE OF WWA ASSOCIATED WITH
NOCTURNALLY-ENHANCED LLJ AND PASSING DISTURBANCE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
THIS ACTIVITY COULD EVOLVE INTO A LATE NIGHT MCS POSING MOSTLY A
THREAT FOR SEVERE HAIL.
...SRN GA/FL...
ELONGATED UPR DISTURBANCE OVER THE SERN GULF STATES MAY ENHANCE
DIURNALLY ENHANCED STORMS OVER FL/S GA AND POSSIBLY CSTL SC. 25-30
KT WNWLY MID LVL FLOW ON S SIDE OF TROUGH MAY YIELD A FEW ORGANIZED
STORMS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WINDS THROUGH EARLY EVE.
..IMY/JEWELL.. 06/06/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment