SWODY1
SPC AC 161628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1128 AM CDT WED JUN 16 2010
VALID 161630Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NY/PA SOUTHWARD INTO
EASTERN NC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...NY/PA/MID ATLANTIC STATES...
SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
STATES...AND A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A LOWER AMPLITUDE
TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WHICH WILL PROVIDE
THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NY/PA AND
PARTS OF THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS HAVE PERSISTED IN THIS
AREA...LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION.
NEVERTHELESS...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY FORM BY MID
AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT OVER
WESTERN/CENTRAL PA AND CENTRAL NY. DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS WILL
PROMOTE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND THE THREAT OF A FEW SUPERCELLS.
DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR LARGE HAIL REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. STORMS WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING TOWARD THE COAST BEFORE
WEAKENING.
...EASTERN KS/OK...
A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD INTO
NORTHERN OK/SOUTHERN KS. THESE STORMS ARE MOVING INTO A VERY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN RATHER INTENSE
THROUGH THE DAY AS THEY TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW RATHER STEEP LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...DESPITE WEAK WIND
FIELDS. WEAKLY ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES ARE EXPECTED
WITH A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.
...ID/MT/WY...
A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER ORE/NV IS FORECAST TO
ROTATE SHARPLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF ID/UT/WY/MT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND FORCING FOR UPWARD
MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD THIS REGION...HELPING TO FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM NORTHERN UT INTO CENTRAL MT.
STRONG HEATING ALONG MUCH OF THIS CORRIDOR WILL LEAD TO STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES PROMOTING THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER
CELLS. STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO WESTERN WY DURING THE
EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.
...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INTENSIFY THIS EVENING ALONG THE LEE TROF FROM WESTERN NEB NORTHWARD
INTO EASTERN MT. STRONG AND INCREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES
SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL BE THE DOMINANT STORM MODE WITH A RISK OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST MUCH
OF THE NIGHT OVER THE DAKOTAS ON NOSE OF 60 KNOT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
JET.
...EASTERN NC...
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK REMNANT MVC OVER THE
CAROLINAS. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FEATURE HAS BECOME VERY
WARM/UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 3000+ J/KG. THIS REGION WILL
LIKELY SEE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE RISK OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IN THE STRONGER STORMS.
...SOUTHERN AL/GA AND THE FL PENINSULA...
STRONG HEATING AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN
RAPID DESTABILIZATION FROM SOUTHERN AL/GA INTO MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA TODAY. THIS SUGGESTS THE RISK OF ISOLATED DISORGANIZED
BUT INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF WET MICROBURSTS.
..HART/GRAMS.. 06/16/2010
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