SWODY1
SPC AC 041629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT FRI JUN 04 2010
VALID 041630Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN KS/NEB EWD THROUGH THE
OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF
COAST REGION...
...CENTRAL IL EWD INTO WRN NY/PA...
WLY MID LEVEL FLOW AT 30-40 KT WILL PERSIST OVER REGION TODAY.
WV IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH WI/IL
AND SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE FOCUSED NEAR A WARM FRONT...WHICH IS
FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NRN INDIANA/LOWER MI EWD INTO NRN PA/NY BY
LATE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH MUCH OF LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON AND MAY MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL UNTIL LATE
TODAY...IF EVEN THEN. THE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING
...WITH MLCAPES ALREADY AROUND 1500 J/KG...STRETCHED ALONG AND SOUTH
OF THE FRONT FROM CENTRAL IL EWD INTO OH. WITH HEATING AND NWD
MOTION OF THE FRONT...THIS INSTABILITY SHOULD SPREAD NWD AND EWD
THROUGH THE DAY. ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD AID IN SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PREDOMINATELY WLY FLOW ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER INDICATES STORMS MAY
EVOLVE INTO A LINE SEGMENT OR TWO...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SMALL
EMBEDDED BOWS AND WIND DAMAGE BECOMING THE GREATER THREAT.
...MID MS/MID MO VALLEYS...
WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR MSP THIS MORNING...WITH WEAK
TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD THROUGH NWRN IA INTO WRN KS. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
WI IMPULSE AND EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY INHIBIT CONVECTION
UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING AND MODEL CONSENSUS
OF AN IMPULSE MOVING EWD FROM WY SHOULD AID IN STORMS DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN IA SWWD INTO NERN KS.
THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ...ALONG WITH 40 KT
OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL LIKELY YIELD
SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THEREAFTER... STORMS
ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS OR TWO AND SHIFT EWD INTO IL
OVERNIGHT WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE.
ADDITIONALLY...DIURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SWLY LOW LEVEL JET OVER
SURFACE FRONT MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS OVER
PORTIONS OF NEB/WRN IA OVERNIGHT.
...SOUTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
BROAD LOW PRESSURE STRETCHED FROM WRN TN VALLEY SWWD INTO THE WRN
GULF...WITH MORNING ANALYSIS AND WV IMAGERY INDICATED LOW CENTER
OVER CENTRAL LA. A BAND OF 30-40 KT SSWLY WINDS WERE LOCATED AHEAD
OF THIS FEATURE BETWEEN 700-500 MB. WEAK DAYTIME HEATING OF WEAKLY
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THUNDERSTORM BAND EXTENDING FROM NEAR BTR SWWD INTO THE
GULF. PERSISTENT MULTICELLS/SMALL BOWS COULD YIELD ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS...WHILE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND 1 KM SRH NEAR 200 M2/S2
MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. HOWEVER...MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
SLOW MOTION OF STORMS INDICATE HEAVY RAINFALL MAY BE MAIN THREAT.
...SRN PA/NRN VA/MD AREA...
CU ARE DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL PA AND SHOULD DEVELOP INTO STORMS
WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. STRONG INSTABILITY...MLCAPES BETWEEN
2000-2500 J/KG AND STRONGER WLY WINDS ALOFT...LOCATED ALONG SRN
FRINGE OF WLY/S...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..IMY/KERR.. 06/04/2010
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