SWODY2
SPC AC 051730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1230 PM CDT SAT JUN 05 2010
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NEW
ENGLAND...NJ...ERN PA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS...
...NEW ENGLAND/NJ/ERN PA/MID-ATLANTIC/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
A RELATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS
THE ERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY SUNDAY. AHEAD OF AND SOUTH
OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...A WELL-DEVELOPED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ONGOING SUNDAY MORNING FROM WRN NY SWWD ACROSS OH INTO SRN
IND WITH THE LINE MOVING ESEWD INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN APPALACHIAN
MTNS BY MIDDAY. A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST WITH THIS LINE
DURING THE MORNING WITH THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY INCREASING AS
SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE DAY. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE SHOULD
BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF A 75 TO 90 KT MID-LEVEL JET
MOVING ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ETA-KF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AT THAT TIME IN MA AND CT SHOW MLCAPE OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
AND 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. 0-3 KM STORM RELATIVELY HELICITIES OF 350 TO
400 M2/S2 COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD BE
DEPENDENT UPON STORM MODE. IF THE PREDOMINANT STORM TYPE IS
LINEAR...THEN WIND DAMAGE COULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. WITH 850 MB
FLOW AT 50 TO 60 KT...ANY FAST-MOVING LINES COULD PRODUCE VERY
STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD
EXTEND SWWD INTO NEW JERSEY ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF THE MID-LEVEL JET.
FURTHER WSW INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
ALSO EXIST SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING
MODERATE INSTABILITY. ETA-KF FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN ERN KY SUNDAY AT
21Z SHOW 35 TO 45 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR
PROFILES. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR BOWING LINE-SEGMENTS WITH A
THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
SUNDAY. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE AROUND THE
NERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES INTO ERN NM. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE FROM ERN CO SSEWD ACROSS NE NM INTO
WEST TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE THE MODELS SHOW SFC DEWPOINTS RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 50S F IN SE CO TO THE UPPER 60S F IN WEST TX. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND
STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OF 2500 TO 4000 J/KG/ IN THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. AS STORMS INITIATE...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS SHOULD DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN AREAS THAT DESTABILIZE THE
MOST AND WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME VERY STEEP. CONCERNING
THE CAPROCK OF WEST TX...THE NAM IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH STORM
INITIATION. BECAUSE OF THIS...HAVE EXTENDED THE 5 PERCENT SEVERE
PROBABILITY SSEWD INTO THE LUBBOCK AND MIDLAND AREAS.
...NRN ROCKIES...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN
HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AS A MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
SOUTHWEST. WARMING SFC TEMPS SHOULD RESULT IN STORM INITIATION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR THE EXIT REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. THE
MID-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES WHICH
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND COLD AIR ALOFT MAY SUPPORT A HAIL THREAT WITH THE
MORE INTENSE CORES. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR
PEAK HEATING WHEN LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEPEST.
..BROYLES.. 06/05/2010
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